Can a city with one of America’s most innovative public transit systems afford to keep it running? San Francisco may soon find out, as increased ridership and improved service collide with a multimillion-dollar deficit.
Transit Innovation and Smart Mobility
The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA) is gaining ground in the post-pandemic era: reliability is up, buses are faster, and more riders are returning. SFMTA is widely regarded as a leader in mobility innovation, pursuing strategies that reduce congestion while promoting equity and sustainability. The SFMTA transit division, commonly known as “Muni”, operates a diverse network of fuel-efficient buses, light rail, trolleybuses, historic streetcars and cable cars.
In the past decade, San Francisco implemented AI-powered service improvements, public outreach campaigns, protected bikeways, and dedicated transit-only lanes. The city has twice as many transit-only lane miles per capita as New York City. Bus rapid transit and priority corridors cut travel times significantly; up to 36% faster on one of the busiest traffic corridors. Equity-focused fares help in making the system more inclusive, and electrification of the bus fleet improves alignment with climate goals.
But these gains are at risk. Without stable funding, Muni faces service cuts that could unravel this hard-won progress.
Legacy, Density and the Street Grid Advantage
San Francisco’s dense Victorian-era street grid, compact size, and hilly topography laid the groundwork for its early private transit systems. Muni was established in 1912, making it one of the oldest publicly owned transit agencies in the U.S.
With nearly 19,000 residents per square mile, San Francisco is the second most densely populated U.S. city, giving it a natural advantage in transit suitability. An estimated 17% of the city’s commuters rely on transit, and Muni reached 75% of its pre-pandemic ridership in early 2025.
A Model Recognized Globally
San Francisco ranked first in the Urban Mobility Readiness Index (Oliver Wyman Forum and UC Berkeley). As a leader in mobility innovation, the city claimed the top spot in the technology adoption sub-index, and scored high for investment in electric mobility —aiming for “25% of all new registered vehicles to be electric by 2030.” San Francisco fosters urban air mobility solutions and promotes the adoption of autonomous vehicles.
In 2024, the city’s Van Ness Bus Rapid Transit project earned a Silver designation from the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP)—recognizing world-class passenger experience, economic value, and environmental benefit.
Service Gains, Rider Growth and Green Leadership
Muni recorded its highest customer satisfaction in over 20 years, with 72% of riders rating service as good or excellent. A survey noted improvements in frequency and reliability, while ridership in 2024 reached 158 million trips—an annual increase of 13.5 million. “When we get the basics right, people will take public transit,” said Mayor Daniel Lurie.
San Francisco also leads in fleet decarbonization. Muni operates the greenest transit fleet in North America, powered largely by renewable electricity. The city’s ambitious target is a 100% emissions-free transport system by 2040.
Car Culture versus Public Safety
Even with leadership in transit reform and innovation, San Francisco remains tethered to car culture. About 70% of households in the city own or lease a car, and pedestrian safety is a serious concern—with speed a leading factor in fatalities and injuries.
Traffic deaths reached a 10-year high in 2024, and the city’s Vision Zero initiative—intended to eliminate traffic fatalities—was allowed to lapse. In response, a coalition of civic groups is demanding its reinstatement, calling for stronger enforcement and renewed leadership.
Still, signs of a cultural shift are visible. In a bold move, the city closed two miles of the Great Highway to vehicles, transforming it into Sunset Dunes Park—a 55-acre space now ranked as San Francisco’s third-most-visited park.
Climate Threats Expose Gaps in Transit Resilience
California ranks among the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, and San Francisco’s transportation system is directly in harm’s way. According to the XDI Climate Risk Dataset, California joins Florida and Texas as the only U.S. states in the global top 20 most at risk from climate impacts. San Francisco has a 72% chance of a major earthquake by the early 2040s, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The city’s vital transit corridors are exposed to seismic events, extreme weather, and flooding. Infrastructure vulnerable to sea-level rise includes over 80 miles of Muni transit lines, operations and maintenance facilities, transit stops, bike lanes, and bridges. To improve infrastructure resilience, SFMTA works closely with partner agencies through the city’s Waterfront Resilience Program.
Infrastructure projects such as seawall reinforcements are underway, requiring a long-term horizon. In the meantime, SFMTA is upgrading its digital infrastructure and strengthening the physical resilience of transit facilities.
Budget Cliff and a Path Forward
Despite ridership gains, the fiscal outlook is grim. Muni faces a projected operating deficit exceeding $300 million, with mounting pressure to cut service.
The stakes are highest for low-income, transit-dependent communities that rely on Muni for access to jobs, schools and essential services. Devon Anderson, president of a local transport workers’ union, told Bay City News: "Cuts to public transportation don't just inconvenience riders. They threaten economic stability, environmental progress and social equality."
To avoid a fiscal cliff, California’s latest budget includes a $750 million loan to help transit agencies stay afloat. But advocates stress this is only a stopgap. Structural reforms and new revenue streams are essential in San Francisco to sustain an equitable transit system that supports climate goals and adapts to evolving mobility needs.